Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Key indicators The most overrated indicator GDP is no longer a big deal GDP report has also become one of least important economic indicators on the U. calendar, as it has led to some of the smallest relative movements in the EURUSD. One possible explanation is that GDP is released less frequently than other data in our study it comes out quarterly versus monthly , but in general, the GDP report is more prone to ambiguity and misinterpretation.

For example, surging GDP brought about by rising exports will be positive for the home currency; however, if GDP growth is a result of inventory buildup, the effect on the currency may actually be negative.

Also, a large number of the components that comprise the GDP report are known in advance of the release. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Most volatile news reports That traders should follow closely Volatility and profits in forex are measured in pips.

The bigger the volatility the more pips and money a trader can make from a certain trade. Keep this chart by your side and make sure to mark these reports in your calendar! Unemployment indicator, showing if U. employment is growing or not. interest rates.

Inflation indicator. for month prior to the release of the report. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 1 What are Economic Indicators? Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published regularly by governmental agencies and the private sector.

These statistics help market observers monitor the economy's pulse - so it's no surprise that they're followed by almost everyone in the financial markets. With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices.

It might seem like you need an advanced economics degree to parse all this data accurately - but in fact traders need only keep a few simple guidelines in mind when making trading decisions based on this data. Mark Your Economic Calendars Watching the economic calendar not only helps you consider trades around these events, it helps explain otherwise unanticipated price actions during those periods. Consider this scenario: it's Monday morning and the USD has been falling for 3 weeks, with many traders short USD positions as a result.

On Friday, however, U. employment data is scheduled to be released. If that report looks promising, traders may start unwinding their short positions before Friday, leading to a short-term rally in USD through the week. Know exactly when each economic indicator will be released. You can find these calendars at the New York Federal Reserve Bank's site.

What does This Data Mean for the Economy? You need not understand every nuance of each data release, but you should try to grasp key, large-scale relationships between reports and what they measure in the economy.

For example, you should know which indicators measure the economy's growth gross domestic product, or GDP versus those that measure inflation PPI, CPI or employment strength non-farm payrolls. Not All Economic Indicators can Move Markets The market may pay attention to different indicators under different conditions.

That focus can change over time and from one currency to another. For example, if prices inflation are not a crucial issue for a given country, but its economic growth is problematic, traders may pay less attention to inflation data and focus on employment data or GDP reports. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations.

If a given report differs widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating, market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result. At the same time, be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations. Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data. Don't Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report, traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions.

For example, many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report, for example, assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth. That may be true generally, but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets. Similarly, PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver. Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes.

There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no trader's knowledge can be complete all the time. You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U. or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8.

With a consensus at 9. economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event.

The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock!

Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released. Instability in the world likelihood of Clinton becoming the next market prods investors to pull out of their president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment financial positions, leading to currency officer at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, wrote depreciation. in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said.

You must remember that investors hate uncertainty! Similar effects have occured with Clinton and Obama. For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure.

Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment!

Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market. This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic.

If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e.

In period. For instance, every morning during order to devise an effective and London Open session. Euro pairs are active time-efficient investment strategy, it is and if you have a good strategy, you could important to understand how much get pips. liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a trader's own 2. News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news.

For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors. release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds. Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it.

volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation. Central Bank Govenor's Speech High volatility offers lucrative profit Speeches from these guys could make pairs potentials to short-term traders.

Lower go hundred's of pips and even change volatility under 80 pips per day is better market sentiment with effects lasting into for risk-averse traders, because there are months. However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation.

Section 03 Forex timing What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that traders can then purchase currencies from tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where different continents.

The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial! countries of the European Union. The US market comes next, so the time when the London session The Forex market is open 24 hours a day, but it is intersects with the US session usually provides the not active all this time!

In Forex trading money is biggest returns. Expert traders consider 10 AM to made when the market is active when traders are be the best time as this is the period when the bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to London market is preparing to close the trades learn about the most productive hours of the day and traders are getting ready to move to US and of the week for trading the forex! This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit.

There are three major trading sessions of the Forex market: London, US and Tokyo session. Fridays are busy as well, but only until PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable.

While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids, it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions. A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity. In simple words: if you want to sell a currency, it is harder to find potential buyers, so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly.

A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before, during and shortly after important news events. In these times of uncertainty, the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably, thus messing up trading by creating execution lags, triggering stop-loss orders, etc.

Usually, the higher the liquidity, the lower the volatility, and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade. However, even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods, such as interest rates announcements, GDP reports, unemployment figures, to name a few examples. There will also be wider spreads during off market hours, when there is only a fraction of the participants in the market, so the liquidity is lower.

This can be seen when the markets open for the Asian session, at GMT Sunday, for example. This widening occurs typically around news announcements or off-market hours. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend, but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent. Dealing desk or market making brokers are going to widen their spreads coming into economic announcements to offset the risk they take on by filling orders.

Unfortunately, banks do the same thing, so an average forex broker could be better, but only marginally. What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses, resulting in a lost trade and investment. wild swings based on rumours etc. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping.

This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably won't be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more, in which time there will be anouncements.

If you can't be at your computer when the news anuncement hits, I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you can't manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however, your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk.

In this case, you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss.

But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you. Even if the announcement is in your favour, price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction.

If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news, chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result. Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. It may often seem that these indicators are contradictory. Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies, ignoring accidental changes, whereas daily, hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions.

Example Multiple time frame analysis time X Let us look at a daily graph. What do most traders do when they see such a curve? Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Conclusion For successful and precise market analysis, you must use at least time frames! Section 04 Time frames Time frame choice of pros The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame!

The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels. As a matter of principle, all good traders I know use 2—3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4—8 bars from the lower time frame.

Even then, I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework.

If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times or prices in the future.

What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices. The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions.

In a nutshell, technical analysis assumes that history will repeat itself. Beware of "Analysis Paralysis" Forecasting models are both art and science, with so many different approaches that traders can get overloaded. It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence. Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry.

Look for Fundamental Drivers First The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. No one will ever win the age-long battle between technical and fundamental analysis. Prior to the mids, fundamental traders dominated the FX market. However, with the advent of new technologies, the influence of technical trading on the FX market has increased significantly.

Nowadays the best strategies tend to be the ones that combine both fundamental and technical analysis. Textbook perfect technical formations have failed too often because of major fundamental news and events like U. nonfarm payrolls. Most individual traders will start trading with technical analysis because for some it is But trading on fundamentals alone can also easier to understand and does not require be risky.

There will oftentimes be sharp hours of news and fact checking. gyrations in the price of currency on a day when there are no news or economic Technical analysts can also follow many reports.

currencies and markets at one time, whereas fundamental analysts tend to focus on a few This suggests that the price action is driven pairs due to the overwhelming amount of by nothing more than flows, sentiment, and data in the market.

pattern formations. Nonetheless, technical analysis works well Therefore, it is very important for technical because the currency market tends to traders to be aware of the key economic data develop strong trends. Once technical or events that are scheduled for release, and, analysis is mastered, it can be applied with in turn, for fundamental traders to be aware equal ease to any time frame or currency of important technical levels that the general traded.

market may be focusing on. However, as we already noted - it is important to take both strategies into consideration, as fundamental analysis can trigger technical movements such as breakouts or reversal in trends.

Technical analysis, on the other hand, can also explain moves that fundamentals cannot, especially in quiet markets, causing resistance in trends or unexplainable movements. Wang, who started trading futures in , said he supplements his fundamental analysis of commodities supply and demand with simple forms of technical analysis. One of his favorite measures is the day moving average. But he closed out the last of those positions on Wednesday, responding to local speculation that producers of coke and coking coal will be allowed to ramp up production.

Dollar pair Single currency or Fiber - Euro Swissy - Swiss Franc Loonie - Canadian Dollar Aussie or Ozzie - Australian Dollar Kiwi - New Zealand Dollar Barnie - U. Natural resources often constitute the majority of the countries' exports, and the strength of the economy its currency can be highly dependent on the prices of these natural resources. These correlations makes them easier to trade. currency, the U. That means gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship to the USD, offering several ways for currency traders to take advantage of that relationship.

For example, if gold breaks an important price level, you'd expect gold to move higher. With this in mind, you might sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. These two major biggest oil consumer — the United States. currencies tend to strengthen as gold prices Because the US is largely dependent on oil, rise. You might consider going long these the rise and fall of the commodity will have currencies when gold is increasing in value, an effect not only on the Canadian Dollar but or trade your GBP or JPY for these currencies also on the US Dollar — the higher the price of when gold is on the rise.

oil, the higher benefits Canada gets, and the more disadvantaged the US becomes. Monitoring exchange rates is essential to predicting earnings and corporate profitability. Throughout and , European manufacturers complained extensively about the rapid rise in the euro and the weakness in the U. The main reason for the dollar's selloff at the time was the country's rapidly growing trade and budget deficits. This caused the EURUSD exchange rate to surge, which took a significant toll on the profitability of European corporations because a higher exchange rate makes the goods of European exporters more expensive to U.

Unfortunately, inadequate hedging is still a reality in Europe, which makes monitoring the EURUSD exchange rate even more important in forecasting the earnings and profitability of European exporters. than on foreign markets. But the loans, essentially a bet on the Aussie The price difference in Russia and abroad dollar remaining strong against the franc, made the re-export of cars from Russia went horribly wrong when the dollar lucrative. plunged in and , costing some borrowers their farms.

Seizing on currency disparities, Russians made quick money by re-exporting the vehicles, which got so cheap in ruble terms that selling them back - sometimes to the same country that manufactured them in the first place - became a way to make a good profit. accelerating pace. They are hoping to buy before the yuan weakens any further.

Expectations are mounting for a higher Fed rate target, boosting the appeal of holding dollars. Section 07 How forex influences business Real-world stories to help you understand how forex market works How China became the biggest investor in the U.

Chinese Yuan Renminbi RMB was pegged to the U. What do all these different terms mean? In this post we go through the ten most commonly used and misunderstood trading slang terms and what exactly they mean.

NOTE: Get the Free Forex Terminology PDF Download Below. A pip in the Forex market is a common measurement for how far the price has moved. Whilst most brokers these days go to the fifth decimal, a pip movement is the fourth decimal. For example; 0. The image below shows where you can see the pip amount in your MT4 and MT5 order window.

The spread is the difference between the bid sell and ask buy prices. This difference is the spread you will pay when making your trades. This is crucial for you to understand because each market and Forex pair will have hugely varying spreads. The spread can severely cut into your trading profit or loss depending on a number of factors. These include the market you are trading and the type of strategy you are using.

Another huge factor is the broker you are using. If you are not using a broker with small spreads , then you can often be paying far too much just to make your trades. The bid and ask prices can vary widely depending on what market or Forex pair you are trading. When you are selling you will receive the bid price that is the lower of the two quotes. Volume in your MT4 and MT5 trading terminals refers to the amount you want to trade. As the image shows below you can set your own volume amount to trade.

Volume is traded in different lot sizes as explained just below. For example; if you trade Forex pair XYZ for one standard lot, you are actually trading , of that Forex pair. There are smaller lot amounts that will allow you to trade with smaller amounts than the , standard lot.

Considering the thousands of trading strategies in the world, the answers to these questions are difficult to pin down. Compared to the seemingly endless numbers of strategies, there are far fewer trading styles. While the exact figure is debatable, I would argue that there are less than ten popular styles in existence.

Exclusive Bonus: Download the Forex Swing Trading PDF Cheat Sheet that will show you the exact 6-step process I use when trading the Forex market. If you have identified swing trading as a candidate—or just want to know more about it—then this post is for you.

I will also share a simple 6-step process that will have you profiting from market swings in no time. As I mentioned above, there are far fewer trading styles than there are strategies.

Within each of these, there are hundreds if not thousands of strategies. In other words, there are many different ways to day trade just as there are many ways to swing trade.

For instance, one day trader may use the 3 and 8 exponential moving averages combined with slow stochastics. Another trader of the same style may use a 5 and 10 simple moving average with a relative strength index.

The same goes for swing trading. The endless number of indicators and methods means that no two traders are exactly alike. In summary, trading styles define broad groups of market participants, while strategies are specific to each trader.

In fact, attempting to catch the extreme tops and bottoms of swings can lead to an increase in losses. The best way to approach these trades is to stay patient and wait for a price action buy or sell signal.

For now, just know that the swing body is the most lucrative part of any market move. On the opposite end of the spectrum from swing trading we have day trading. As you now know, the goal with swing trading is to catch the larger swings in the market.

Naturally, this requires a holding period that spans a few days to a few weeks. I spend most of my time on the daily charts. I use a specific type of chart that uses a New York close. My suggestion is to start with the daily time frame. Once you become profitable at swing trading with the daily, feel free to move to the 4-hour time frame. As a general rule, price action signals become more reliable as you move from the lower time frames to higher ones.

Think of drawing key support and resistance levels as building the foundation for your house. These are the most basic levels you want on your charts. They provide a great foundation for trading swings in the market and offer some of the best target areas. If you want to know how to draw support and resistance levels, see this post.

Not all technical traders use trend lines. They not only offer you a way to identify entries with the trend , but they can also be used to spot reversals before they happen. Be sure to review the lesson I wrote on trend strength see link above.

It will explain everything you need to know to use trend lines in this manner. At this point, you should be on the daily time frame and have all relevant support and resistance areas marked. Notice how each swing point is higher than the last.

You want to be a buyer during bullish momentum such as this. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have a downtrend. In this case, the market is carving lower highs and lower lows.

Last but not least is a ranging market. As the name implies, this occurs when a market moves sideways within a range. Although the chart above has no bullish or bearish momentum, it can still generate lucrative swing trades. In fact, ranges such as the one above can often produce some of the best trades. This is mostly due to the way that support and resistance levels stand out from the surrounding price action.

Steps 1 and 2 showed you how to identify key support and resistance levels using the daily time frame. This tells you whether the market is in an uptrend, a downtrend or range-bound. My two favorite candlestick patterns are the pin bar and engulfing bar. You can learn more about both of these signals in this post. The goal is to use this pin bar signal to buy the market. By doing this, we can profit as the market swings upward and continues the current rally. On the flip side, if the market is in a downtrend, you want to watch for sell signals from resistance.

The idea is to catch as much of it as possible, but waiting for confirming price action is crucial. When looking for setups, be sure to scan your charts. Scanning for setups is more of a qualitative process. Most traders feel like they need to find a setup each time they sit down in front of their computer.

This is called searching for setups. The first rule is to define a profit target and a stop loss level. Many traders make the mistake of only identifying a target and forget about their stop loss. In order to calculate your risk as explained in the next step, you must have a stop loss level defined. The second rule is to identify both of these levels before risking capital.

This is the only time you have a completely neutral bias. As soon as you have money at risk, that neutral stance goes out the window. It then becomes far too easy to place your exit points at levels that benefit your trade, rather than basing them on what the market is telling you. Remember that the goal is to catch the majority of the swing.

Once they are on your chart, use them to your advantage. That involves watching for entries as well as determining exit points. See this lesson to find out how I set and manage stop loss orders. Before I discuss how to identify stop loss levels and profit targets, I want to share two important concepts.

The first is R-multiples. This is a way to calculate your risk using a single number. A favorable risk to reward ratio is one where the payoff is at least twice the potential loss. Written as an R-multiple, that would be 2R or greater. You can learn about both of these concepts in greater detail in this post. When calculating the risk of any trade, the first thing you want to do is determine where you should place the stop loss.

For a pin bar, the best location is above or below the tail. The same goes for a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern. This is where those key levels come into play once more. Remember that when swing trading the goal is to catch the swings that occur between support and resistance levels.

So if the market is trending higher and a bullish pin bar forms at support, ask yourself the following question. The answer will not only tell you where to place your target, but will also determine whether a favorable risk to reward ratio is possible. There is no right or wrong answer here. After more than a decade of trading, I found swing trades to be the most profitable.

Before I experimented with everything from one-minute scalping strategies to trading Monday gaps. Finding a profitable style has more to do with your personality and preferences than you may know. Most Forex swing trades last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks.

This means holding positions overnight and sometimes over the weekend. There are, of course, a few ways to manage the risks that accompany a longer holding period. One way is to simply close your position before the weekend if you know there is a chance for volatility such as a government election. Swing trading Forex is what allowed me to start Daily Price Action in On average, I spend no more than 30 or 40 minutes reviewing my charts each day. Spending more time than this is unnecessary and would expose me to the risk of overtrading.

Because swing trading Forex works best on the higher time frames , opportunities are limited. You may only get five to ten setups each month. For instance, my minimum risk to reward ratio is 3R. In fact, a slower paced style like swing trading gives you more time to make decisions which leads to less stress and anxiety. Having the ability to trade Forex around my work schedule was a huge advantage. This is the kind of freedom swing trading can offer.

There is nothing fast or action-packed about swing trading. Most day traders, on the other hand, make a much smaller amount per profitable trade. They make up for it in volume, but the return per execution is relatively small.

After more than a decade of trading, I found swing trades to be the most profitable. The answer will not only tell you where to place your target, but will also determine whether a favorable risk to reward ratio is possible. In this type of environment U. Be sure to review the lesson I wrote on trend strength see link above. However, drawdown can last longer for a swing trader. The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions.

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